Maoists hold massive Nepal rally

At least 200,000 people have taken part in a Maoist rally in the Nepalese capital, Kathmandu - the first there by the rebels for three years.
Streets were hung with banners bearing communist slogans and posters of the Maoist leader, Prachanda.

King Gyanendra ended 14 months of absolute rule in April after weeks of pro-democracy protests.

The new multi-party government has been holding talks with the Maoists aimed at ending the 10-year insurgency.

The Maoists are demanding the dissolution of the government and elections to a new constituent assembly.

The BBC's Charles Haviland in Kathmandu says Friday's rally was huge, with people crushed against fences and climbing walls for a better view.
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Source - http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/5039788.stm

Hurray - Very interesting perspective. I am, however, still cautiously optimistic that if the SPA doesnt screw up horribly in government, they can still stop a Maoist majority in parliament. I do, however, have my doubts about the ability of the SPA to keep their act together. If the SPA splits before the CA election, the Maoists will find the going much easier. Girija's longevity and SPA unity are probably the best bulwarks the parties have against a Maoist majority at this time. Which is scary because both wont last forever. The sooner the CA election are held and the sooner the CA produces a new constitution and a new house, the better it is for the country, in my opinion.

Lets run the country in Proclamations .why do we need CA and new law?:)
As long as SPA is powerful its ok !rite.
Well those two congress should unite against commies now.If they don't commies are going to win.As all commies are brothers some leaders of UML are tilted towards .All the right and center forces should unite otherwise these maoist are going to cheat.By only cheating they can come to power.
regarding giving home ministry to maoist.hahahaha.Even including them in interim govt .should be thought carefully.

IamI - Proclamations have questionable legitimacy and I hope we dont see very many more of those :) Elections and referenda should decide matters relating to the fundamental structure of the nation state and while parliamentary proclamations may be well intended, they are dangerous as they can give rise to an elected dictatorship.

I'd personally like to see the two congresses and the UML fight on the same side. I am not sure if such a thing will actually happen, but if it does, there is a good chance this arrangement will give the Maosist a run for their money.

Orion,
I was kiddin when i said that.I am not supporting proclamations.infact i don't support any.let it be against king too.
Cause i believe in democracy and that kind of proclamation are result of undemocratic steps .cause they do not follow consititution.They can cut all the power of king even remove king if they want but only by people's mandate and vote.
I would be definately be nice to see if SPA remains united to fight against mao monkeys.

>Nepe - The media is going to have to talk about it sooner or later.

Orion,

It feels like as if our media are looking left and right to see who speaks first and what he speaks.

Regarding when are they going to speak, I think we shall see major openness only after Prachanda/Baburam publicly appear in Kathmandu.

> If the parties can get their acts together between now and the
>CA elections, we may be saved from a Maoist government

I think SPA as an alliance of seven parties against the Maoists has begun losing ground. The political scenario of the moment is that a republican revolution is happening albeit in a slow motion. So, what is in the best interest of individual parties at this time is OWNING the revolution so that they have capital to show to their constituencies in future.

Since the dominant ghatak of SPA, Nepali Congress, is still seems inclined to re-define the revolution (that's, it's not republican one) than owning it whole heartedly, the remaining ghataks do not seem to be in positions to benefit much from SPA vs Maoist pose.

I was expecting a rat race of political parties to OWN the republic revolution. May be it is happening but in a motion too slow to feel it. Ramchandra Poudel's recent pro-republic rhetoric might be NC's "on your mark". However, I am not sure about it. GP Koirala is still pro-monarchy. And so is Deuba. UML is already in the race. Other left parties are already on the track. However they are unsure about how best to run.

So, basically it is still the Maoists who is owning the revolution at this point of time. That means it will not be surprising if some parties of SPA found it more advantageous to make alliance with the Maoists than remaining in the SPA.

So the chance for a government of/with Maoists is more than what would be from their own strength alone.

As for the nature of Maoists government or a coalition government with the Maoists, I think their style is not going to be radically different than all previous governments we have seen. So, as far as political parties including the Maoists are concerned, I neither hope better nor fear worse.

Yet, I am assuredly optimistic about our smooth transition and better future. And that is for one single and simple reason- the degree of awareness of common people (the non-partisan neutral mass) of Nepal. Participation of this mass in the movement was it's major and decisive aspect and the mass seems to be fully aware of it and also of what it means.

And I think this awareness is not going to fade away for next 2-3 years. What this means is that we have a popular warranty for largely popular politics all along the election of CA, drafting of the constitution, first parliament and the 100 days honeymoon and more of the first elected government.

So I am relaxed at least for next 2-3 years. People's peaked awareness and sense of supremacy, their sense of what they deserve and their vigilance will keep everybody in check.

Nepe

"It feels like as if our media are looking left and right to see who speaks first and what he speaks."

Ha ha ... well said! :)

A couple of more thoughts on the broader subject of the balance of power in Nepal

(1) Congress stands to gain from a republic : I personally feel it is in the interest of the Congress party and GPK to abolish the Monarchy. The reason being the Congress is the natural second choice of most conservative voters in Nepal. Such people do still exist, although not in huge numbers, but there are enough of them to tilt an election one way or the other. The Congress has historically (at least in the first 10 years of democracy) relied on this vote. If you recall, Girija Koirala used to publicly defend consitutional monarchy around election time during his first few terms. He may have done that out of conviction, but I think there was also political calculation behind it : to attract the so called pro-King/pro-Army voters way from the RPP which a lot of people as as ineffective and irrelevant. Obviously there are hard-core Royalists who absolutely hate Koirala and the Congress party especially amongst the richer and Kathmandu based voters but the majority of pro-King voters, especially outside the valley, are much more susceptible to voting for the Congress than many people would like to believe.

(2) Differentiation from the left helps the Congress: The country has steadily moved leftwards over the last few decades and this trend has accelerated in the last 10-15 years. The Maoist movement and Jana Andolan II have re-defined the balance of power in Nepal. The left has never really been this strong in Nepal. The content of the recent parliamentary proclamation is proof enough of this. Therefore, a lot of people in the Congress are drawn to the conclusion that the Congress needs to be the "un-left" party in order to survive and get elected. Personally, I think this is a risky proposition but I fear there are too many people in the party who believe this and will base their future strategy on this.

(3) The Maoists need the SPA as much as the SPA needs them: For all the talk about Maoists attaining some sort of a superpower status, the government is still in the hands of the SPA, the King remains a mute spectator, the Army hates Koirala but doesnt have a choice other than to back him against Prachanda, and the international community seems to support the SPA. The SPA-Maoist alliance gives the Maoists the credibility they lack with the international community and urban voters. If the Maoists were to come to power on their own, they could be on the receiving end of another revolution if they fail to deliver and as the last 4 years have shown you cant deliver in Nepal if you piss of everyone else in the country and the world.

(4) UML and Congress may be loosing their relevance : With the UML competing with the Maoists for the left vote, there is a distinct possibility that we will see a two party state : Congress versus Maoists. It is equally possible that the Congress may loose its relevance if it can't pull up it socks and decide where it stands on fundamental issues like Monarchy and secularism. In such a case, we may find ourselves in a democratic communist state : where the UML represents the more moderate elements and the Maoists the more radical ones.

(5) The King is down but not out yet : As much as I would like to see the Monarchy abolished, it would not be prudent to count them out completely at this point. At least till the CA elections. Monarchy as we have known it historically is dead. But the King, if he is half as smart as they claim him to be, could try to re-invent the institution in the image of a modern, pragmatic and reformed institution. This wont attract voters in droves and allow him to come back to power but it could sway enough people to tilt the CA elections in favor of non-republican candidates or worse put pressure on elected CA members to vote for a setup that has constitutional monarchy in it.

(6) Public opinion will be all powerful : You raise a great point about public awareness and its power. As long as the SPA can keep majority public opinion on it's side, the more moderate forces can stay in power. A failure on the part of the SPA to keep reform at a fast pace will favor the Maoist. The irony of this revolution, is GPK, who is certainly not the most revolutionary of politicians, looks like a geriatric version of Che Guevara! Public opinion seems to have lit a fire underneath the SPA and as long as the public keeps them on a tight leash, it is likely that the pace of reform will not slow down and we will see some constructive and long-lasting changes in the larger interest of the country and its people.

Orion,

Quite in-depth observation and analyses. Thanks for sharing.


Some contemplation regarding NC's identity, constituency and future from my side.

1) I think while the "middle" identity of NC holds true for itself (leaders and cadres) and to foreign powers, it is not equally true for it's voters.

I think the bulk of NC's voters still vote for NC for who they believe brought "prjatantra" in 2007 through armed revolution and for BP Koirala who they believe resisted King Mahendra.

So pro-monarchy identity is not really something NC wants to sell. Just look at how NC is trying to portray itself. "GP Koirala is a strong leader who resisted King Gyanendra" is the message they are trying to feed the people.

So NC actually lives a double life. "Accommodating to monarchy" and "against drastic changes" for it's workers and foreign friends, but "resisting monarchy" and "controlled reforms" for it's voters.


2. If monarchy is retained somehow, it sure makes sense for NC to keep it's double life, particularly it's moderate image, going, in order to recruit the type of workers it has been depending upon.

As it stands, people who do not have much complains about their lives and the system, people who do not know what they want and people who do not want big changes are more likely to go to NeBiSangh and NC.

People who are not satisfied with their lives, people who want to see changes even if they do not know how exactly to bring them about are more likely to go to Akhil and Left parties.

So, yes, moderates are still NC's constituency for recruitment.


3. GP Koirala's pro-monarchy stand, knowing him for past 2 decades, looks personal (rather familial) and elitist than strategic or for party's sake.

Keeping the integrity of BP Koirala's model of democracy for Nepal is very important for him.

Monarchical democracy will keep the "Maha-manav" stature of BP intact.

Republic democracy will make him look a fool.

I think this is what keeps GP Koirala so staunchly pro-monarchy even when it is about to cost his party dearly.


4. As for the election of CA, I am absolutely sure republic is going to win it with an overwhelming majority, irrespective of the mechanism of voting (proportional, mixed-proportional or 'winner takes all' voting) as long as Maoists remain armed. The most motivated section of our society is already pro-republic. For the remaining less motivated section, republic will be a bargain for disarming the Maoists.

So, I think NC will have to present it's candidates with pro-republic slogan in the election. I think GP Koirala will have to let the legacy of BP Koirala and NC go by the eve of the election of CA. We shall see.


5. I think the matter of balance of power among SPA parties and the Maoists has become much less prone to or dependent on political alignment and maneuvers since Jana-andolan.

Jana-andolan has basically recognized both SPA and the Maoists as equal partners for the job of writing a new constitution and start a new era of Loktantra in Nepal.

Jana-andolan also showed that the international community means nothing. So, the international legitimacy is not really that much of a concern to the Maoists. I think they know that all they need is to win the election and the international legitimacy will just follow.

So, I think populist agendas rather than equation to political parties is more important to the Maoists. Maoists seems to have doing good in this front. HoR declarations are also partly to compete with the Maoist's images.

So, I think "issues" will be dominant feature of coming days politics and public opinion will be determining factors to set the actual course of politics.


Nepe

Good analysis by both of you guys !
nepe here is what i have to say:
point4:ABout the bargain with maoist.Do you think middle people really trust maoist that they will be ready to bargain for it.The true nature of maoist is not mystery to nepalese.even after the 25 point code of conduct .recently they abducted 250 students.So that bargaining would be quite costly.

about international support: Nepal cannot even move one step further without international support So saying that there was no external influence in janadloan ii is questionable.

you raised the point about fair election.I still don't think there is going to be fair election .if there is one there is no way republic can get landslide victory.,though it seems like it.Only stand is where does NC stand ?and GP being monarch and change resistance forces most likely they would be slient in this issue.

About UML , there are both kind of forces in UML.So cannot really say they would go 100% with republic .They may be divided in this issue .As well as fear of maoist exteremism might hinder their thoughts.

I think at this point all the forces should unite against maoist and stop impsoing thier idealogy on nepalese people.however it may be .by defending king if it comes down to that.

ImI wrote:
>Do you think middle people really trust maoist that they will be ready to bargain for it.

Of course people can not trust the ARMED Maoists. That is exactly why I think they will accept bargain (to whom it may look like) of republic for DISARMAMENT and mainstreaming of the Maoists.

>The true nature of maoist is not mystery to nepalese.even
>after the 25 point code of conduct .recently they abducted
>250 students.So that bargaining would be quite costly.

It's true that Maoists are still continuing "extortions" and "abductions". However, it is not to the extent that people say 'enough is enough'. If it ever came to that point, people have both courage and logistics to do "Jana-andolan" against the Maoists. People defied the Royal Nepal Army. What are Maoist militia ?

>about international support: Nepal cannot even move one
>step further without international support So saying that there
>was no external influence in janadloan ii is questionable.

International support for Jana-andolan was largely GENERAL and LIMITED and was never meant to disimpower the King the way Jana-andolan actually meant and did it. That is why I said International community meant nothing. What better can illustrate this than international community's call for accepting King's first offer of premiership to SPA and people's outright rejection ?

> you raised the point about fair election.I still don't think
>there is going to be fair election

Strictly speaking, you are right. There is not going to be a fair and free election of CA. First, it is going to be held under the shadow of Maoists gun (however hidden or "sequestered"). (Maoists have said they will not disarm themselves before the election and the general mass seem to be okay with that. Then, CA happened to become a child of Jana-andolan. So it has a tacit obligation to follow the mandate of Jana-andolan. So, CA will neither be fair nor will be free.

In all practicality, the election of CA will just be a formality to pass the republic rather than a free and fair contest between monarchy and republic.

>About UML , there are both kind of forces in UML.So cannot
>really say they would go 100% with republic .They may be divided
>in this issue .As well as fear of maoist exteremism might hinder their
>thoughts.

UML leadership had two kinds of people- decisive pro-republic an indecisive pro-republic. In post-andolan time, all have become decisive pro-republic. As for fear of Maoist's extremism, it is straight forward that Maoists will remain more extremist if they are left out and less extremist if they are brought in the mainstream. So I do not think UML leaders would reject Maoists on that basis.

>I think at this point all the forces should unite against maoist
>and stop impsoing thier idealogy on nepalese people.however
>it may be .by defending king if it comes down to that.

May be. However, that's not gonna happen. First, Maoists have changed their ideology from whatever it was to "democratic republic", which should be acceptable to everybody and it does appear so. Then there aren't many people willing to unite with the King anymore.

So, we will have to wait until Maoists enter the mainstream politics to see if they are honest or not about their commitment to "democratic republic". Assumption of otherwise of a few people like you and me is not going to convince anybody.

I think the test of Maoist's honesty will be when they agree to disarm. From what Maoists are saying and from practical point of view, Maoists should lay down their arm after the election of CA and before the election of parliament. So, if everything goes according to the roadmap that we know now, we are not very far from that point.

Nepe

True,
we are not very far from the point that maoist rule in Nepal.If SPA keeps doing whatever maoist says then that will be the case.
First of All ,There should be no CA if it is not going to be fair.
If maoist doesn't lay there arms before CA they won't lay there arms even after CA.
Which real communist believed in Democractic rupublic so why would they be any exception.


If UML supports maoist but then they diagree later then it is obviously end of UML.

NC should be clear with thier stand as you said and should atleast try to work with UML against MAO .
Otherwise it is obvious that we will be entering another phase of chaos and autocratic regime.

ImI,

I understand some of your concerns. However, I also notice that you are making ASSUMPTIONS and wishing others to act on those ASSUMPTIONS.

Assumptions are assumptions no matter how convincing they look to you.

At this time, what Nepali people is looking for is TRUTH, not ASSUMPTIONS. And truth comes from TESTING.

Nepali people seems ready to test Maoists- their words, roadmap and commitments.

I think the following are the steps where Maoists shall be tested. It is also loosely a political roadmap agreed by or acceptable to Maoists for next 1-2 years.

1. Ideological commitment to "democratic republic" (done)
2. Practical commitment to political process (CA) rather than armed revolution (done)
3. Formal understanding with SPA (done)
4. Ceasefire (done)
5. Partnership in the movement (done)
6. Partnership in the interim government (due)
7. "Sequestering" of weapons during the election of CA (commitment)
8. Participation the election of CA (sure thing)
9. Constitution drafting:
a. Drafting of republican constitution ACCORDING to the mandate of the election (commitment)
b. Drafting of monarchical constitution ACCORDING to the mandate of the election (non-commitment)
c. Drafting of monarchical constitution AGAINST the mandate of the election (opposition)
10. Disarmament and management of Militia (commitment and sure thing in case of 9a, uncertain in case of 9b and unlikely in case of 9c )

After the disarmament:
11. Election of Parliament/Head of gov (commitment to participate)
12. New government as per the result
13. Truth commission (popular demand)
14. Actions against all (old government, RNA, Maoists) found guilty (by popular pressure)
14. Full fledged, vibrant and of course messy democracy

What one can draw from the above is that, if we do not have any problem with "democratic republic", then there is nothing to be nervous about the Maoists. The path to their domestication and a stable democracy is straight forward.

Only one thing that might make it unworkable is if the MAJORITY of Nepali people voted for MONARCHY (pro-monarchy candidates to be exact) in the election of CA. But, is it likely ? I don't think so.

So, all that is left is to move and move faster to pass through all these steps which will test Maoists and also other political parties and we the people too.

Nepe

Ok Nepe, I didnot understand your non commitment part. How can you test the non commitment part?If they are not committed now it is sure and certain that they are not going to agree.

Then lets assume that there is fair election and Monarchs win so according to you they are going back to jungle .Then why did they even come out.

Testing during the time of crisis and with intimidation is what i do not believe in.And i think you don't either.this should be understood by nepalese people.

the road map layout is fine .Without disarment being the first few steps rather than last steps would be highly beneficial towards maoist commitment to peace.This will also insure less intimidation.

Then there is point you mentioned action against . what action against and to whom?for their eyes Girija and Sher bahadur should be one of the most hated person. So do you mean to say they are going to act against them?

there was something "code of conduct" which was suppose to be done.how committed are maoist on that?If they cannot abide by simple as that. How can nepalese people give them chance.I don't see any point.This is my opinion .I think test can be very costly for nepalese people.

Npepe Whats this done part of your sentence ? R u tallin me they have already disarmed ? huh ! Then who the fug is robbing all those banks ? Man you live in a dream world. WAKE UP MAPAI NEPE and smell that coffee. DO NOT BE A CHAMELEON.

ImI,

You picked two really crucial points.

1. The chances of Maoists not accepting the result of CA's election if it went in favor of monarchy.

Before worrying, let's make a realistic speculation about the election.

Since republic/monarchy is the major issue, it's certain that the election is going to take a form of a referendum on this issue. Candidates will declare their position regarding republic/monarchy (and other things) and the voters vote accordingly.

So our feared scenario is when 51% of the candidates (or total votes) are pro-monarchy. What probability does it has ?

If pro-republic candidates (or votes) exceeds 50%, that's it. Republic wins.

So the thing to consider is this. Granted the current atmosphere continues until the election.

Chances of pro-republic votes exceeding 50 percent = 99.99 %
Chances of pro-monarchy votes exceeding 50 percent = 00.01 %

So, I do not see any reason to worry that a situation might come for Maoists to go back to jungle.


2. Justice to war crimes:

We are talking about truth commission/war tribunal for the time when Maoists will have been disarmed. So, there is no point fearing that Maoists might not co-operate with it. They will be forced, by the law, by victims and by popular opinions to co-operate.

It is important to note that Maoists are not lonely abusers. State security forces and whoever commanded them have also done that. So, Maoists will not have to feel shame all by themselves. Our courts will see abusers from both sides. This should make Maoists feel more comfortable to co-operate.

Another point, what happens to the crimes other than abuse to human subjects, like destruction of national properties during the war ?

This issue is probably not for the court of law. This is probably for the court of people (election). And I guess, we will have to reconcile with whatever verdict the people give. Because people's verdict is supreme. We can not complain that.

So this is it. If we think realistically and pragmatically, there is nothing to worry about.

Nepe

i think you point that there would be pro - republic majority being 99.99% is completely wrong.How do you analyze that just because 200-300 k people come out on the streets.I am not taking favor of monarch but your guessestimation is very highly unlikely.Most of nepalese people are confused and this is advantage to monarchs .As well as the nature of maoist is another advantage to monach.
Since the guessetimation is not in proper place the chances are 50-50.The later the CA the better for King.The more maoist break law the more advantage to king.

Also CA cannot be refreendum.CA is not true democractic process.It is representative style where the voice of majority can be negelected as seen in BUSH and ALGORE case.
So , i do not completely support the idea of CA as it is not refrendum(not true democracy)
But alternative are hard to implement .i agree with that.

Also the war crime . When maoist and if maoist comes to the power .If there bad intentions are fullfilled then it is the begining of revenge politics.I doubt they would acknowldege any wrong doing on their part.They have not admitted till now .will they ever admit when they are wining?

There is no point going to CA unless and atleast They disarm
which is vey highly unlikely.If we go without disarming them they will never agree.No international pressure or national pressure can convince them .We have seen that in past.

Commies are very good with words but hardly ever they keep their words.

Peace in Nepal was only during panchayat era (at least it seemed like , agreed was dominated so badly but atleast we didn't had this)Now no matter maoist remains in mainstream of goes back to jungle i hardly doubts these dogs are not going to fight for the bone.

ImI,

May be I should have put it this way:

Chances for 100% pro-republic votes = 0%
Chances for 90% pro-republic votes = 30%
Chances for 80% pro-republic votes = 50%
Chances for 70% pro-republic votes = 70%
Chances for 60% pro-republic votes = 90%
Chances for 51% pro-republic votes = 99%

Anyway, I am this confident because as I see monarchy is already dead and I do not think people wants to revive it that too at the cost of returning the Maoists to the jungle.

Jana-andolan's mandate is yes to Maoist's entry to democratic politics along with other political parties at the cost of monarchy's ousting. For next 2 years, the fever of Jana-andolan is to stay with the people. Until then monarchy has no chance to revive, IMHO.

*** *** ***

As for Truth Commission/ War Tribunal, it is not about admission by the abusers, it's about complaints by the victims and investigation by an all powerful body. So we got to trust it. As you said, there is no better alternative than this.

On other points, I think, as I said, it's not time for making fearful assumptions and staying in one place. It's time for moving ahead and encountering the moments of truth and reconciling with it and moving on. I think Nepali people know that and are ready.

Nepe - I find your perspectives very interesting. Personally, I think it's hard to accurately estimate which way the CA elections will go but I admire your guts for stepping up and making a prediction.

I think a couple of things are key in deciding the outcome of the CA elections:

(1) If the NC decides to go for a republic, then the game is over. End of story. The republicans will get a cake walk because all three major political forces will be on the same side.

(2)If the NC decides to support constitutional monarchy (or 'ceremonial monarchy' as they'd probably call it) or worse stay nuetral then the outcome could go either way.

As much as I found your characterization of NC and GPK's stands on the monarchy interesting, I honestly am not convinced that either of them are monarchists at heart. The monarchy has always been the biggest enemy of the Congress and vice-versa. Both would, deep down inside, be glad to see the other eliminated.

I personally think GPK and the NC don't have very many options vis-a-vis the monarchy at this time. They can at best stay "neutral" on the subject. It will be hard for them to come out in favor of any form of Monarchy. But perhaps they will push for a ballot measure to accompany the CA elections that asks voters whether the CA should adopt a monarchial or republican setup. The NC can then go with whatever setup people choose. I would like to see the party come out swinging unequivocally in favor of a republic but I have my doubts about whether they will actually do such a thing.

One another note, Prachanda is the man of the hour without a doubt. And he sure seems to be enjoying all the attention! :)

Nepe,
I think your estimation now is somewhat correct if NC does decide to go against Monarch.As the stance is not clear .It is hard to say at this point.It also depends on how the king is going to act in coming days.

King has literally no power at this point of time.but it would be interesting to see how the country is going to be ran in republic set up.I would have loved to see more violent janadolan than this cause this was not to the level that party and people will never forget.We all know nepali people easily forget everything.That is why i am saying the more delay in CA the better for the king.King did a big blunder , if i were king i wouldn't have done that .then again ganye is known stupid .

It will also be interesting to see the international forces effects in Nepalese future politics.

Well, if nepalese janta are really ready to test maoist ,then we will have to wait and see the end result.I just hope that in the hope of peace we might not lose freedom.I keep my finger cross.

good points raised by orion and Nepe thanks for your anaylsis.

>Personally, I think it's hard to accurately estimate which way
>the CA elections will go but I admire your guts for stepping up
>and making a prediction.

Orion, I was, as they say, "hazarding" my guess. Since I am not claiming accuracy, it was easy.

Some additional guesswork regarding GP and NC's profile.

1. I think, traditionally, NC's leadership and all prominent members were monarchist at heart and out. It started to change only after King's takeover in 2002. Now most members are already pro-republic at heart. Koirala, his kins and others close to him are left (it is interesting to note that Sujata too had a pro-republic fever right after her "escape" from the country after Feb 1 and before returning home).

In the last convention of NC, although GP Koirala was elected the president against Narahari Acharya, it was clear that the vote was for personality than for ideology. In fact, it was reported that apart from Sailaja Acharya and few others, there was not a single person who was not pro-republic. The convention was that dramatic. Even earlier than that, there were indication of NC cadre's shift towards pro-republic position. A meeting of NC's district presidents had declared something to that effect. If you go to the student wing of NC, it does not require any introduction.

So, pro-monarchy position of NC is actually surviving on GP Koirala's strong desire and unrivaled influence alone. (I will come to the theory on GP Koirala's pro-monarchy position shortly)

So, if NC is to go to CA with slogan of "ceremonial monarchy", it will be under the enforcement by GP Koirala. So, If liberty is granted to the candidates, I bet 100% of them will declare their allegiance to republic. Two reasons. One, as I said, the pool from which they will come is already pro-republic. Second, the atmosphere is such that if you say no to republic you are not going to get votes. I don't think NC candidates would go for risking their election when all they need to avoid that is to say three words "I support republic", in just one mass-meeting when GP Koirala is not around.

Once a candidate utters these three words, he will be counted as a pro-republic candidate by now an important power called "civil society" and most importantly by the Maoists. Civil society and the Maoists will never allow that candidate to "deceive" during the drafting of the constitution. (This is one of the reasons why Maoists are not ready to lay down their arms before the election and "civil society" is supporting the Maoist in that.)

So, I think GP Koirala will have very hard time, if not impossible, to able to send the candidates with pro-monarchy or republic-neutral election manifesto. Knowing Koirala's stubbornness, GP Koirala will probably be looking helplessly at his candidates declaring their allegiance to republic themselves during the election.

And all "civil society" and the Maoists will need to insist on republic constitution later is 51% of total candidates who express their allegiance to republic on any one single occasion just to be on the record.

Once they can show that 51% of the candidates have expressed their allegiance to republic during election, they will in no way allow a monarchical constitution to come out. In other words, the fate of the constitution will be sealed by the time the last candidate's result is declared. In other words, there will be no room for GP Koirala or any pro-monarchy power to manipulate the constitution drafting sessions to introduce monarchy if it does not win. As far as monarchy/republic issue is concerned, CA is going to be "winner takes all" and not "inclusive" one to accommodate minority vote.

So, if these assumptions of mine are not way off realism, then republic definitely is going to "win".

2. Now on GP Koirala. It is clear that GP Koirala who held and is holding on to monarchy even when a small pretending that he is not should benefit his party is doing it for some special reason. His pride to keep the identity and legacy of Koirala family and, to some extent, the party too, does appear as one such special reason. Another reason I have speculated is that GP Koirala looks at Nepal from his own eyes. I mean, he sees it not more than his own reflection- a reflection of a man with no degree, average IQ, no reading, no idea about modern ideas and technology, no power to inspire people, no oratory skill, surviving by pure stubbornness and like that. This reflection obviously can not be self-confident enough to "Desh Chalaunu" single handedly. He needs somebody very close but behind the curtain of course, for help you never know when you might need and for sharing some blame if thing did not go very well and so on. Who else than a constitutional King could be that person to the thinking of a person of GP Koirala's intellect ?

So a constitutional king is also a "partner of convenience" to GP Koirala and the future leaders Koirala dreams for Nepal.

This dream, however, has already started to shatter and the tide is so strong GP Koirala will have to let it go sometime before CA sits to draft the constitution.

Even if GP Koirala, the unrivaled leader of open politics in Nepal, managed to pull his helpers and supporters together, an unusual rival has arrived. Prachanda. This man has already started to claim his territory, prachanda tarikale, I should say.

Looking at the impressive style of Prachanda in his KTV interview, I do not think GP Koirala will manage to sell "ceremonial monarchy" to Nepali customers against Prachanda's "democratic republic".

"Tapai_haru Ganatantra_ma aaunus, haami bahudal_ma aayoun". Prachanda is already dragging monarchist GP Koirala around the ring.


Nepe

Nepe ,
One thing that i don't like about civil society members are they are bias.They are heavly tilted towards republic and they do not really represent common people.
With people like Padma ratna former maoist as civil society leader.How can this be a fair game?
About Prachanda- this guy still not ready to come to peace.He has no respect for anybody.He talks Straight but talking straight and having no decency to PM is not what nepali people would like to hear.He shows how jungle he is.This is not how the country can be run .Nepali people should and would fear of this guys.Again , some where i heard he is selling big dreams like making nepal - singapore .person who talks this big without base is certainly not trusted by nepalese people.As people know better.But uneducated and easily expolitable public could be exploited.


Your analysis are good .May be that could happen.