Maoists hold massive Nepal rally

At least 200,000 people have taken part in a Maoist rally in the Nepalese capital, Kathmandu - the first there by the rebels for three years.
Streets were hung with banners bearing communist slogans and posters of the Maoist leader, Prachanda.

King Gyanendra ended 14 months of absolute rule in April after weeks of pro-democracy protests.

The new multi-party government has been holding talks with the Maoists aimed at ending the 10-year insurgency.

The Maoists are demanding the dissolution of the government and elections to a new constituent assembly.

The BBC's Charles Haviland in Kathmandu says Friday's rally was huge, with people crushed against fences and climbing walls for a better view.
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Source - http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/5039788.stm

Maoists are on a verge of the win over state. no doubt about that. they are here to stay. nepal is gonna be ruled by maoists for the betterment. democracy is still immature and need time to flourish. let us be ruled by maoists for 5 freaking years. i cannot guarantee full-fledged democracy but i surely can guarantee prosperous nepal in the horizon. bitter it is i know, BUT TRUTH

hari saranam
loote

LOL. A person saying "Hari Saranam" and a devotee of the Killer Maoists. Wow.

Indeed, Hari Saranam, Hari Saranam, Hari Saranam, Hari Saranam. But no M and SPAM.

Simple and Period.

memyselfandnepal! How do you estimate Ratna Park (sahid manch) can not hold more than 60000 people? do you know the total area of sahid manch ? or are you just trying to underestimate maoist power?
I am not supporting maoist here. When Maoist started their war from Rolpa, nobody thought they will be at this situation now. So if you still think, they are not powerful enough to rule the country,then you are too late. Just look and see how they have been using the SPA as their puppet. its too late to think they wont come in Singhadarbar.

meandmyself

i pity on you man. u have NO idea of teh magnitude of the maoists revolution yet. i suggest you put your 5" thick glass on and look through the history a bit

hari om
loote

Nepe - The media is going to have to talk about it sooner or later. If the parties can get their acts together between now and the CA elections, we may be saved from a Maoist government otherwise the parties will have only themselves to blame.

There is no doubt that maoist have been succesful to manipualte and exploit nepalese people but betterment????
Well i tell you this once again,if there is true fair election without fear maoist are going to lose and even from rolpa where
they started .yes , i admit they have recruited 20k army compromising mostly of childeren.I have told before to
communist are good at speach and good showing dreams. Poor innocent people in hope are buying it .But most of them are simply scared.
These maoist cannot sustain without guns.
The power showdown in KTM is ok not bad but you need to realize how these so many people got there and by what means.
So point about giving maoist 5 years , we will see about that if there is fair election.In democratic Nepal we will see
respect people's mandate if they want maoist.I am just not convinced blood suckers and murderers are so liked by normal
people.

Even before CA, tehre shoudl be free voting to see if Maoists movement is acceptable to Nepalese. Nepalese should vote to evaluate all the actions taken by Maoists in the past 13 years.

If Maoist cannot accept this type of Voting, that means they want to win by waging war and fear. FULL STOP.

Good idea but practically I dont see it happening. The CA will be a referendrum on the parties, maoists and the King.

If maoist had majority would they be going to jungle??they know that fact .those jokers could not get even 10 seats in the parliament then .Now i doubt how many seats are they going to win.

Maoists are pushing the SPA for CA. But before reaching CA, there is the need of an interim government. From what I have heard (don't quote me here) from my sources in Nepal, Maoists are demanding 3 ministries in the interim government, one of them being Home Ministry. Now handing home ministry to Maoists will be shooting on your own foot. And who knows, after meeting their demands and looking at their history and past actions and instability in ideology, that they will tag along with SPA to CA. So it could end right there and we could go back to being a communist state.
After reading the kantipur article posted here by Nepe, I would like to highlight the fact that Bengal was the most prosperous state in India few decades back. Look at where it is now. Could the rising popularity of communism be the factor? I wonder.

And regarding, Maoists holding massive rallies in KTM, it is a no brainer that most of them are innocent villagers who are recruited forcefully to come to KTM. And a lot of them have come to KTM for the first time and have seen the life there. And I assume that they have made comparisons to what they were having till now in their village. And it only seems natural to see the unfairness in life and start demanding what they witnessed in KTM. With no education, and skills, they can get what they want only through what they have known to do the best and that is use violence. So coming days are dark for Nepal, as there are sure to be more bloodshed. If not it will be like Khumer Rouge, emptying of the city, and lots of killing fields. So to those people who are natives of KTM or whose parents or ancestors have arrived in KTM and have worked hard enough to earn something that they can claim as theirs, don't be surprised when it all will be snatched away. It may be soon, as there are already talks that people are beginning to sell their lands and homes to save money or send the money abroad. As a result they are planning on stopping buying and selling of properties for indefinite time.

Hurray - Very interesting perspective. I am, however, still cautiously optimistic that if the SPA doesnt screw up horribly in government, they can still stop a Maoist majority in parliament. I do, however, have my doubts about the ability of the SPA to keep their act together. If the SPA splits before the CA election, the Maoists will find the going much easier. Girija's longevity and SPA unity are probably the best bulwarks the parties have against a Maoist majority at this time. Which is scary because both wont last forever. The sooner the CA election are held and the sooner the CA produces a new constitution and a new house, the better it is for the country, in my opinion.

Lets run the country in Proclamations .why do we need CA and new law?:)
As long as SPA is powerful its ok !rite.
Well those two congress should unite against commies now.If they don't commies are going to win.As all commies are brothers some leaders of UML are tilted towards .All the right and center forces should unite otherwise these maoist are going to cheat.By only cheating they can come to power.
regarding giving home ministry to maoist.hahahaha.Even including them in interim govt .should be thought carefully.

IamI - Proclamations have questionable legitimacy and I hope we dont see very many more of those :) Elections and referenda should decide matters relating to the fundamental structure of the nation state and while parliamentary proclamations may be well intended, they are dangerous as they can give rise to an elected dictatorship.

I'd personally like to see the two congresses and the UML fight on the same side. I am not sure if such a thing will actually happen, but if it does, there is a good chance this arrangement will give the Maosist a run for their money.

Orion,
I was kiddin when i said that.I am not supporting proclamations.infact i don't support any.let it be against king too.
Cause i believe in democracy and that kind of proclamation are result of undemocratic steps .cause they do not follow consititution.They can cut all the power of king even remove king if they want but only by people's mandate and vote.
I would be definately be nice to see if SPA remains united to fight against mao monkeys.

>Nepe - The media is going to have to talk about it sooner or later.

Orion,

It feels like as if our media are looking left and right to see who speaks first and what he speaks.

Regarding when are they going to speak, I think we shall see major openness only after Prachanda/Baburam publicly appear in Kathmandu.

> If the parties can get their acts together between now and the
>CA elections, we may be saved from a Maoist government

I think SPA as an alliance of seven parties against the Maoists has begun losing ground. The political scenario of the moment is that a republican revolution is happening albeit in a slow motion. So, what is in the best interest of individual parties at this time is OWNING the revolution so that they have capital to show to their constituencies in future.

Since the dominant ghatak of SPA, Nepali Congress, is still seems inclined to re-define the revolution (that's, it's not republican one) than owning it whole heartedly, the remaining ghataks do not seem to be in positions to benefit much from SPA vs Maoist pose.

I was expecting a rat race of political parties to OWN the republic revolution. May be it is happening but in a motion too slow to feel it. Ramchandra Poudel's recent pro-republic rhetoric might be NC's "on your mark". However, I am not sure about it. GP Koirala is still pro-monarchy. And so is Deuba. UML is already in the race. Other left parties are already on the track. However they are unsure about how best to run.

So, basically it is still the Maoists who is owning the revolution at this point of time. That means it will not be surprising if some parties of SPA found it more advantageous to make alliance with the Maoists than remaining in the SPA.

So the chance for a government of/with Maoists is more than what would be from their own strength alone.

As for the nature of Maoists government or a coalition government with the Maoists, I think their style is not going to be radically different than all previous governments we have seen. So, as far as political parties including the Maoists are concerned, I neither hope better nor fear worse.

Yet, I am assuredly optimistic about our smooth transition and better future. And that is for one single and simple reason- the degree of awareness of common people (the non-partisan neutral mass) of Nepal. Participation of this mass in the movement was it's major and decisive aspect and the mass seems to be fully aware of it and also of what it means.

And I think this awareness is not going to fade away for next 2-3 years. What this means is that we have a popular warranty for largely popular politics all along the election of CA, drafting of the constitution, first parliament and the 100 days honeymoon and more of the first elected government.

So I am relaxed at least for next 2-3 years. People's peaked awareness and sense of supremacy, their sense of what they deserve and their vigilance will keep everybody in check.

Nepe

"It feels like as if our media are looking left and right to see who speaks first and what he speaks."

Ha ha ... well said! :)

A couple of more thoughts on the broader subject of the balance of power in Nepal

(1) Congress stands to gain from a republic : I personally feel it is in the interest of the Congress party and GPK to abolish the Monarchy. The reason being the Congress is the natural second choice of most conservative voters in Nepal. Such people do still exist, although not in huge numbers, but there are enough of them to tilt an election one way or the other. The Congress has historically (at least in the first 10 years of democracy) relied on this vote. If you recall, Girija Koirala used to publicly defend consitutional monarchy around election time during his first few terms. He may have done that out of conviction, but I think there was also political calculation behind it : to attract the so called pro-King/pro-Army voters way from the RPP which a lot of people as as ineffective and irrelevant. Obviously there are hard-core Royalists who absolutely hate Koirala and the Congress party especially amongst the richer and Kathmandu based voters but the majority of pro-King voters, especially outside the valley, are much more susceptible to voting for the Congress than many people would like to believe.

(2) Differentiation from the left helps the Congress: The country has steadily moved leftwards over the last few decades and this trend has accelerated in the last 10-15 years. The Maoist movement and Jana Andolan II have re-defined the balance of power in Nepal. The left has never really been this strong in Nepal. The content of the recent parliamentary proclamation is proof enough of this. Therefore, a lot of people in the Congress are drawn to the conclusion that the Congress needs to be the "un-left" party in order to survive and get elected. Personally, I think this is a risky proposition but I fear there are too many people in the party who believe this and will base their future strategy on this.

(3) The Maoists need the SPA as much as the SPA needs them: For all the talk about Maoists attaining some sort of a superpower status, the government is still in the hands of the SPA, the King remains a mute spectator, the Army hates Koirala but doesnt have a choice other than to back him against Prachanda, and the international community seems to support the SPA. The SPA-Maoist alliance gives the Maoists the credibility they lack with the international community and urban voters. If the Maoists were to come to power on their own, they could be on the receiving end of another revolution if they fail to deliver and as the last 4 years have shown you cant deliver in Nepal if you piss of everyone else in the country and the world.

(4) UML and Congress may be loosing their relevance : With the UML competing with the Maoists for the left vote, there is a distinct possibility that we will see a two party state : Congress versus Maoists. It is equally possible that the Congress may loose its relevance if it can't pull up it socks and decide where it stands on fundamental issues like Monarchy and secularism. In such a case, we may find ourselves in a democratic communist state : where the UML represents the more moderate elements and the Maoists the more radical ones.

(5) The King is down but not out yet : As much as I would like to see the Monarchy abolished, it would not be prudent to count them out completely at this point. At least till the CA elections. Monarchy as we have known it historically is dead. But the King, if he is half as smart as they claim him to be, could try to re-invent the institution in the image of a modern, pragmatic and reformed institution. This wont attract voters in droves and allow him to come back to power but it could sway enough people to tilt the CA elections in favor of non-republican candidates or worse put pressure on elected CA members to vote for a setup that has constitutional monarchy in it.

(6) Public opinion will be all powerful : You raise a great point about public awareness and its power. As long as the SPA can keep majority public opinion on it's side, the more moderate forces can stay in power. A failure on the part of the SPA to keep reform at a fast pace will favor the Maoist. The irony of this revolution, is GPK, who is certainly not the most revolutionary of politicians, looks like a geriatric version of Che Guevara! Public opinion seems to have lit a fire underneath the SPA and as long as the public keeps them on a tight leash, it is likely that the pace of reform will not slow down and we will see some constructive and long-lasting changes in the larger interest of the country and its people.

Orion,

Quite in-depth observation and analyses. Thanks for sharing.


Some contemplation regarding NC's identity, constituency and future from my side.

1) I think while the "middle" identity of NC holds true for itself (leaders and cadres) and to foreign powers, it is not equally true for it's voters.

I think the bulk of NC's voters still vote for NC for who they believe brought "prjatantra" in 2007 through armed revolution and for BP Koirala who they believe resisted King Mahendra.

So pro-monarchy identity is not really something NC wants to sell. Just look at how NC is trying to portray itself. "GP Koirala is a strong leader who resisted King Gyanendra" is the message they are trying to feed the people.

So NC actually lives a double life. "Accommodating to monarchy" and "against drastic changes" for it's workers and foreign friends, but "resisting monarchy" and "controlled reforms" for it's voters.


2. If monarchy is retained somehow, it sure makes sense for NC to keep it's double life, particularly it's moderate image, going, in order to recruit the type of workers it has been depending upon.

As it stands, people who do not have much complains about their lives and the system, people who do not know what they want and people who do not want big changes are more likely to go to NeBiSangh and NC.

People who are not satisfied with their lives, people who want to see changes even if they do not know how exactly to bring them about are more likely to go to Akhil and Left parties.

So, yes, moderates are still NC's constituency for recruitment.


3. GP Koirala's pro-monarchy stand, knowing him for past 2 decades, looks personal (rather familial) and elitist than strategic or for party's sake.

Keeping the integrity of BP Koirala's model of democracy for Nepal is very important for him.

Monarchical democracy will keep the "Maha-manav" stature of BP intact.

Republic democracy will make him look a fool.

I think this is what keeps GP Koirala so staunchly pro-monarchy even when it is about to cost his party dearly.


4. As for the election of CA, I am absolutely sure republic is going to win it with an overwhelming majority, irrespective of the mechanism of voting (proportional, mixed-proportional or 'winner takes all' voting) as long as Maoists remain armed. The most motivated section of our society is already pro-republic. For the remaining less motivated section, republic will be a bargain for disarming the Maoists.

So, I think NC will have to present it's candidates with pro-republic slogan in the election. I think GP Koirala will have to let the legacy of BP Koirala and NC go by the eve of the election of CA. We shall see.


5. I think the matter of balance of power among SPA parties and the Maoists has become much less prone to or dependent on political alignment and maneuvers since Jana-andolan.

Jana-andolan has basically recognized both SPA and the Maoists as equal partners for the job of writing a new constitution and start a new era of Loktantra in Nepal.

Jana-andolan also showed that the international community means nothing. So, the international legitimacy is not really that much of a concern to the Maoists. I think they know that all they need is to win the election and the international legitimacy will just follow.

So, I think populist agendas rather than equation to political parties is more important to the Maoists. Maoists seems to have doing good in this front. HoR declarations are also partly to compete with the Maoist's images.

So, I think "issues" will be dominant feature of coming days politics and public opinion will be determining factors to set the actual course of politics.


Nepe

Good analysis by both of you guys !
nepe here is what i have to say:
point4:ABout the bargain with maoist.Do you think middle people really trust maoist that they will be ready to bargain for it.The true nature of maoist is not mystery to nepalese.even after the 25 point code of conduct .recently they abducted 250 students.So that bargaining would be quite costly.

about international support: Nepal cannot even move one step further without international support So saying that there was no external influence in janadloan ii is questionable.

you raised the point about fair election.I still don't think there is going to be fair election .if there is one there is no way republic can get landslide victory.,though it seems like it.Only stand is where does NC stand ?and GP being monarch and change resistance forces most likely they would be slient in this issue.

About UML , there are both kind of forces in UML.So cannot really say they would go 100% with republic .They may be divided in this issue .As well as fear of maoist exteremism might hinder their thoughts.

I think at this point all the forces should unite against maoist and stop impsoing thier idealogy on nepalese people.however it may be .by defending king if it comes down to that.

ImI wrote:
>Do you think middle people really trust maoist that they will be ready to bargain for it.

Of course people can not trust the ARMED Maoists. That is exactly why I think they will accept bargain (to whom it may look like) of republic for DISARMAMENT and mainstreaming of the Maoists.

>The true nature of maoist is not mystery to nepalese.even
>after the 25 point code of conduct .recently they abducted
>250 students.So that bargaining would be quite costly.

It's true that Maoists are still continuing "extortions" and "abductions". However, it is not to the extent that people say 'enough is enough'. If it ever came to that point, people have both courage and logistics to do "Jana-andolan" against the Maoists. People defied the Royal Nepal Army. What are Maoist militia ?

>about international support: Nepal cannot even move one
>step further without international support So saying that there
>was no external influence in janadloan ii is questionable.

International support for Jana-andolan was largely GENERAL and LIMITED and was never meant to disimpower the King the way Jana-andolan actually meant and did it. That is why I said International community meant nothing. What better can illustrate this than international community's call for accepting King's first offer of premiership to SPA and people's outright rejection ?

> you raised the point about fair election.I still don't think
>there is going to be fair election

Strictly speaking, you are right. There is not going to be a fair and free election of CA. First, it is going to be held under the shadow of Maoists gun (however hidden or "sequestered"). (Maoists have said they will not disarm themselves before the election and the general mass seem to be okay with that. Then, CA happened to become a child of Jana-andolan. So it has a tacit obligation to follow the mandate of Jana-andolan. So, CA will neither be fair nor will be free.

In all practicality, the election of CA will just be a formality to pass the republic rather than a free and fair contest between monarchy and republic.

>About UML , there are both kind of forces in UML.So cannot
>really say they would go 100% with republic .They may be divided
>in this issue .As well as fear of maoist exteremism might hinder their
>thoughts.

UML leadership had two kinds of people- decisive pro-republic an indecisive pro-republic. In post-andolan time, all have become decisive pro-republic. As for fear of Maoist's extremism, it is straight forward that Maoists will remain more extremist if they are left out and less extremist if they are brought in the mainstream. So I do not think UML leaders would reject Maoists on that basis.

>I think at this point all the forces should unite against maoist
>and stop impsoing thier idealogy on nepalese people.however
>it may be .by defending king if it comes down to that.

May be. However, that's not gonna happen. First, Maoists have changed their ideology from whatever it was to "democratic republic", which should be acceptable to everybody and it does appear so. Then there aren't many people willing to unite with the King anymore.

So, we will have to wait until Maoists enter the mainstream politics to see if they are honest or not about their commitment to "democratic republic". Assumption of otherwise of a few people like you and me is not going to convince anybody.

I think the test of Maoist's honesty will be when they agree to disarm. From what Maoists are saying and from practical point of view, Maoists should lay down their arm after the election of CA and before the election of parliament. So, if everything goes according to the roadmap that we know now, we are not very far from that point.

Nepe