Here's from one of my favorite writers, Kaplan. I don't agree with what he says on many issues, but he does make some interesting points, which others fail to make.

From this month's Atlantic Monthly.. a fine old New England monthly. Really.

 

 

 

Burma’s Next Chapter

Americans see world events through their own historical prism. Because our history has been a happy story about the triumph of the individual in a liberal democracy, we constantly seek the same for other nations. The idea that freedom could unleash violent ethnic and sectarian forces falls outside our own experience and takes us by surprise whenever it happens.

The collapse of the Berlin Wall was not supposed to lead to ethnic cleansing in the former Yugoslavia. The liberation of Iraq from Saddam Hussein’s tyranny was not supposed to lead to civil war. And, likewise, we now look forward to the toppling of the oppressive junta in Burma as the successful end of the story there, when it really may be just the beginning—ushering in turmoil for years to come.

As one area expert who has spent years on the Thai-Burmese border told me: “It’s not about democracy; it’s about tribes.” While the media concentrate on marching monks in Rangoon, ethnic minorities in the north of Burma, far from the television cameras, are slowly being annihilated by the Burmese military.

A third to a half of the Burmese population, and seven of the 14 Burmese states, are made up of ethnic minorities: Shan, Karen, Rohingya, Mon, and others. The junta sees these groups as threats to the state and thus is at war with them. There are even reports of the Burmese army using chemical weapons against these hill tribes. On any given day in Burma, more than half a million people are internally displaced. I interviewed Rohingya refugees from Burma this past summer in Bangladesh, and their stories were all about ethnic conflict. The junta contends that it alone can hold Burma together, which is its rationale for power.

On the other hand, there’s a strong argument to be made that the junta’s war against the hill tribes is what’s fueling Burma’s descent into chaos.

So far, most of the news about Burma has been centered on the big cities, Rangoon and Mandalay, where ethnic Burman monks have been demonstrating against an ethnic Burman military. At the moment, the country’s minorities support the monks and the democratic movement of Aung San Suu Kyi, the ethnic Burman who has been held under house arrest almost continuously since 1989. But if the junta loses its grip on power—which is what everyone across the political spectrum in the United States and much of the world seems to desire—a struggle could then ensue between the Burman and non-Burman segments of the population.

That struggle may well be peaceful. A government headed by Aung San Suu Kyi may stop the military violence against the hill tribes in the north and make peace with the non-Burman parts of the population. Nevertheless, the ethnic minorities fear that they will continue to be marginalized in a democratic Burma run by ethnic Burmans.

The stakes are immense. Like Iraq, Burma is rich in oil, as well as in natural gas, hydropower, minerals, and precious stones. International corporations are heavily invested in Burma. China covets Burma’s strategic position astride the Bay of Bengal, near the main shipping lanes of world commerce, and is building a deepwater port in southeastern Burma. India needs Burma to stop allowing separatists in eastern India from using Burma as a rear base. Whoever rules in Rangoon will have access to great wealth, power, and influence.

Right now, both ethnic Burmans and minorities are singing from the same sheet. But they may not do so after the junta is toppled. An ethnic alliance in the form of the Ethnic Nationalities Council is vying for equal status with Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy. The fall of the junta in Burma may unleash a power struggle between the two and threaten the disintegration of the country.

Don’t get me wrong: The United States and the rest of the world must continue to take a firm stand against the junta and support the Burmese democracy movement. But if we succeed, we will have to work even harder to help the Burmese resolve their ethnic conflicts. Burma should benefit from the lessons we’ve learned in Iraq and the former Yugoslavia.

In ethnically and religiously diverse societies in the developing world, the longer the oppression, the worse the turmoil once such oppression has been lifted. Even if the junta falls tomorrow, the Burmese drama is just beginning.

Hey Isolated Freak -

Thanks for sharing. I guess the Junta is showing some signs of relenting to pressure but not sure what will come out of it:

http://www.theage.com.au/news/World/Burma-junta-to-negotiate-with-Suu-Kyi/2007/10/08/1191695798069.html

Burma junta to 'negotiate' with Suu Kyi

October 8, 2007

Burma's military junta has appointed a deputy minister to negotiate with detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi on the regime's offer of direct talks, state television reports.

Aung Kyi, a major general who became deputy labour minister last year, would "make contact and deal with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi in the future," MRTV reported, without giving further details.

After the largest anti-junta protests in nearly 20 years, Senior General Than Shwe, whose loathing for Suu Kyi is well known, offered direct talks if she abandoned "confrontation" and support for sanctions and "utter devastation."

There was no reaction from Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy to Aung Kyi's appointment. But NLD spokesman Nyan Win has said Than Shwe's offer could lead to talks about talks.

Analysts caution against optimism as hopes of change in the past have been dashed so often.

"It's too early to assess this gambit by the regime," a retired professor said.

"It comes at a time of mounting pressure from the international community.

"We need to wait for further movement."

There has been no word from Suu Kyi, 62, who has spent 12 of the past 18 years in detention and is confined to her house in Rangoon without a telephone and requiring official permission, granted rarely, to receive visitors.

The New Light of Myanmar, the general's official mouthpiece, suggested that Suu Kyi would remain under house arrest until a new constitution was approved - a dim and distant prospect, according to most analysts.

It also gave short shrift to the demands of the thousands who joined last month's protests crushed by the regime.

"The three demands of the protesters - lowering consumer prices, release of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and political prisoners, and national reconciliation - cannot be satisfied through protest," the paper said in a commentary.

"Now, those responsible are making arrangements to draft the state constitution and collect the list of voters," it added.

"When the state constitution is approved, the fulfilment of the three demands will be within reach."

Holding a referendum on a new constitution is the fourth stage in a seven-step "road map to democracy".

For Suu Kyi, the omens are not good.

Stage One of the road map - a National Convention to draw up the "detailed basic principles" of the charter - took 14 years.

Furthermore, Stage Two - "step-by-step implementation of the process necessary for the emergence of a genuine and disciplined democratic state" - is so unclear few know what it means, let alone when it can be completed.

Stage Three is drafting the constitution, a process that many thought the National Convention was meant to have been doing for the last 14 years of on-off meetings, most of which have been boycotted by Suu Kyi's party.

The NLD won a massive election victory in 1990 only to be denied power by the army, which first seized power in 1962.

Most Western governments dismissed the convention as a sham to cement the generals' grip on power.

Snippets of the "detailed basic principles" of the charter appearing in state media point to little transfer of power to a civilian administration or autonomy for Burma's 100-plus ethnic minorities.

The commander-in-chief of the army will be the most powerful man in the country under the constitutional guidelines agreed at the national convention, with the power to appoint the ministers of defence, interior and border affairs.

He will also be able to assume power "in times of emergency".

The junta has cut security in Rangoon steadily since it sent in soldiers 10 days ago to end to the biggest pro-democracy protests since 1988. Official media say 10 people were killed, although Western governments say the toll is likely to have been higher.

In 1988, up to 3,000 people are thought to have died in a crackdown over several weeks on protests led by students, as well as the Buddhist monks who spearheaded last month's marches which filled five city blocks at their height.